Wednesday, 14 November 2012

Magic Vs Probability (The Sad Truth Of Coincidence)


Story A.  (Level of Coincidence- Moderate)

Having arranged to meet a friend last week, he texted me to say he was running late at work, and would I like to come and give him a hand.  I went to his place of work, and he introduced me to his co-workers.  One of them was a boy from Berlin.  So I delightedly started talking to him.  When we realised that he also lives in the same neighbourhood as I will in Berlin, I was happy to think I might know someone nearby in a new town.

Then a few days later, chatting online, this boy mentioned he was having some trouble with his flight back home to Berlin.  He mentioned the airline, which I said was the same airline I flew with.  He mentioned the date, which was the same date as I would be flying back.  Curious.  Turns out, we are on exactly the same flight back to Berlin.  Which means, meeting this boy meant that I would have a friend to travel with me from Belfast, down to Dublin, the same flight to Berlin, and then to within a few streets distance in Berlin.  I was delighted and definitely did think to myself- "Wow.  What are the chances of that!?"




Story B. (Level of Coincidence- HIGH)

Chatting with a friend recently, he mentioned a bit of a love dilemma he was having.  Going through the positives of each, with Girl A, he also told me the following story as a 'positive'.

Having known each other for years, Boy knew that Girl A would always change her pin number to the birthdates of her current boyfriend.  Just a 'thing' she did.  So if she dated someone who was born on, say, 2nd February, she would change her pin number to 0202, for example.  When Boy and Girl A began to date, Girl A did this again, changing her pin to match Boy's birthday.  Boy thought this was cute, but explained to Girl A, that he didn't think he could do this back for her, as his card provider didn't allow you to change your pin to what you wanted.  However, when they discussed his pin, it turned out that the pin number he already had matched Girl A's birthday.

Again- what are the odds of having numbers on your pin that create a birthday (for example, mine don't) [so, it will be something like maybe 3/10 perhaps], a girl who's birthday matches your pin number and a girl whose 'thing' is to do that with her pin.

Whaaaaat!!!?





I don't believe in coincidence, but I think that is because I have hung around with too many spoilsports, who prove that if you create enough incidence, the overlaps of coincidence will be more likely.  To think of an analogy of the emotional response to finding out the probability of something is actually quite small, or that your so-called big coincidence is not so big after all- well, to me, it is like finding out Santa isn't real. [To any children reading- pfft, people try to tell you this all the time, but he totally is.  I mean, how else would you get those gifts?  And what other viable employment options does a flying reindeer really have?]

I thought the following video was a good example of such a dream destroying mathematician's angle.  It is well explained, but I mean, even the voice.  He could have tried to add some magic to the presentation, since he was destroying magic from our lives.  Yes, you informative bastard, your argument is strong, but your charisma is not. 






Good video huh?  Nonetheless, there is undeniably a real joy in coincidence, which no amount of maths can suppress for me, and I suspect the same is the case for many.  I was delighted to find out that this guy could travel with me to Berlin- I felt that the chances were against me to have a friend to travel with, and bam, made a new friend who is already doing that same route.  When my friend told me the story about Girl A, we both discussed the probability of it, but we both definitely were a bit buzzed from how kind of romantic it was.  Maths can explain things, but I think there are too many people in this world with whom we will have no connection- to meet a stranger by some form of coincidence, or to discover something about them coincidentally, well, its a fast way to develop a strong rapport, and that can only be a good thing.  
So guys, I guess today's lesson is don't go and marry someone because they like the same ice cream as you, but definitely enjoy the little things like this.  Yes, they can be explained away by probability, but so what??  They still make you feel good, so enjoy it.

[I actually just found this guy.... he talks more about feelings vs reason which delights me.  Better video.]






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